Bare Knuckles Ag ™

Bare Knuckles Ag Blog

Why 2019-20 Could Unfold Like a Re-run of 1993-94 Bull Market in Corn

Pre-report trade estimates for corn in USDA’s ACREAGE report on Friday average just 86.7 million acres, down a whopping 6.1 million from March intentions and more than double the 3 million acre cut USDA already made in its June WASDE….
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USDA’s June WASDE Corn Price Forecast too S-T-I-N-G-Y by Historical Standards

Initially, the trade reaction to USDA’s June 11 WASDE balance sheet for corn was price friendly. Traders were surprised USDA cut the planted acreage estimate by 3 million from March Prospective Plantings this soon; not even waiting to see the…
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Here is what China’s “bait” for a trade deal could be worth to soybean farmers

The ongoing trade spat with China has soybean prices in a coma. They have dangled tempting “bait” for a deal with a promise to buy 5 million tons of U.S. beans if resolution on trade can be reached. What would…
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Farm Safety is No Accident! How some set a standard while others add to statistics.

Statistically, farming has long been among the top 10 most hazardous occupations in the country in terms of workplace-related illness, injuries and even fatalities. In fact, research I did for a recent presentation on this topic for farmers attending a…
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Why Trump Won’t Back Down on Trade Sanctions with China

Farmers are still looking at prices substantially lower than they would otherwise be if China hadn’t responded to the President’s tariffs where they knew it would hurt him most, politically: Imports of farm goods; especially soybeans. But by responding with…
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WASDE Wizard® Perspective on September WASDE Numbers

WASDE WIZARD ® Perspective on September WASDE Numbers: Why a second MFP payment to soybean producers will depend more on political calculations than actual economic impact of lost exports. For soybeans, WASDE changes make 2nd USDA grower payment unlikely. The…
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WASDE Wizard® Perspective on August WASDE Numbers

WASDE WIZARD ® Perspective on August WASDE Numbers Huge yields tanked futures; export outlook recovers some. WASDE Wizard® is 2-for-2 in post-release accuracy. Upon release of USDA’s June WASDE,  the price forecasting model I’ve dubbed my “WASDE Wizard®” said the…
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