Bare Knuckles Ag ™

USDA

3 Reasons Mar 31 Prospective Plantings will already be suspect

History shows farmers can change their plans by a lot due to changing price outlooks or weather planting delays can change plans for them. (Usually it’s the latter.) Over the last 20 years, corn acreage reported in June has increased…
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Deferred cattle futures grossly oversold in COVID19 panic

Wholesale beef prices have been soaring this week as grocery stores saw fresh meat counters stripped bare. Packer margins are obscenely profitable. The picture above is the beef case at a grocery store here in St. Louis and it’s the…
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Market reaction understated because China trade deal is underrated.

Background: Markets had nearly grown immune to reports of “progress” on ending the trade war with China because Beijing so regularly either denied any agreements had been reached or insisted what they had agreed to was “lost in translation” (overstated)…
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USDA’s June WASDE Corn Price Forecast too S-T-I-N-G-Y by Historical Standards

Initially, the trade reaction to USDA’s June 11 WASDE balance sheet for corn was price friendly. Traders were surprised USDA cut the planted acreage estimate by 3 million from March Prospective Plantings this soon; not even waiting to see the…
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Fate of 2019 “ghost acres” ?

Fate of 4 million “ghost acres” mysteriously missing from March Prospective Plantings Report Amid all the post-report hoopla regarding unexpectedly high planting intentions for corn, the bigger than expected drop in planned soybeans and the lowest wheat acreage since USDA…
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