Bare Knuckles Ag ™

SOYBEANS

Pick one: Either USDA is too bearish or some 2020 crop futures too strong.

Background: I plugged Friday’s November WASDE numbers for 2019-20 and USDA’s recent initial “baseline” balance sheets for 2020-21 corn, wheat and soybeans into my WASDE Wizard ® forecasting model under 3 weather scenarios with interesting results. The next three tables…
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Friday WASDE hints trade spat “hangover”

Friday WASDE hints trade spat “hangover” to cost soy producers .68/bu. on 2019 crop. It was mostly a grim picture for the corn, wheat and soybean outlook in USDA’s first look at the supply/demand balance sheets for 2019 crops in…
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Here is what China’s “bait” for a trade deal could be worth to soybean farmers

The ongoing trade spat with China has soybean prices in a coma. They have dangled tempting “bait” for a deal with a promise to buy 5 million tons of U.S. beans if resolution on trade can be reached. What would…
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WASDE Wizard® Perspective on September WASDE Numbers

WASDE WIZARD ® Perspective on September WASDE Numbers: Why a second MFP payment to soybean producers will depend more on political calculations than actual economic impact of lost exports. For soybeans, WASDE changes make 2nd USDA grower payment unlikely. The…
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WASDE Wizard® Perspective on August WASDE Numbers

WASDE WIZARD ® Perspective on August WASDE Numbers Huge yields tanked futures; export outlook recovers some. WASDE Wizard® is 2-for-2 in post-release accuracy. Upon release of USDA’s June WASDE,  the price forecasting model I’ve dubbed my “WASDE Wizard®” said the…
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