Bare Knuckles Ag ™

CORN

Pick one: Either USDA is too bearish or some 2020 crop futures too strong.

Background: I plugged Friday’s November WASDE numbers for 2019-20 and USDA’s recent initial “baseline” balance sheets for 2020-21 corn, wheat and soybeans into my WASDE Wizard ® forecasting model under 3 weather scenarios with interesting results. The next three tables…
Read more

Why 2019-20 Could Unfold Like a Re-run of 1993-94 Bull Market in Corn

Pre-report trade estimates for corn in USDA’s ACREAGE report on Friday average just 86.7 million acres, down a whopping 6.1 million from March intentions and more than double the 3 million acre cut USDA already made in its June WASDE….
Read more

USDA’s June WASDE Corn Price Forecast too S-T-I-N-G-Y by Historical Standards

Initially, the trade reaction to USDA’s June 11 WASDE balance sheet for corn was price friendly. Traders were surprised USDA cut the planted acreage estimate by 3 million from March Prospective Plantings this soon; not even waiting to see the…
Read more

WASDE Wizard® Perspective on September WASDE Numbers

WASDE WIZARD ® Perspective on September WASDE Numbers: Why a second MFP payment to soybean producers will depend more on political calculations than actual economic impact of lost exports. For soybeans, WASDE changes make 2nd USDA grower payment unlikely. The…
Read more

WASDE Wizard® Perspective on August WASDE Numbers

WASDE WIZARD ® Perspective on August WASDE Numbers Huge yields tanked futures; export outlook recovers some. WASDE Wizard® is 2-for-2 in post-release accuracy. Upon release of USDA’s June WASDE,  the price forecasting model I’ve dubbed my “WASDE Wizard®” said the…
Read more