Bare Knuckles Ag ™

Corn outlook

Pick one: Either USDA is too bearish or some 2020 crop futures too strong.

Background: I plugged Friday’s November WASDE numbers for 2019-20 and USDA’s recent initial “baseline” balance sheets for 2020-21 corn, wheat and soybeans into my WASDE Wizard ® forecasting model under 3 weather scenarios with interesting results. The next three tables…
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Why 2019-20 Could Unfold Like a Re-run of 1993-94 Bull Market in Corn

Pre-report trade estimates for corn in USDA’s ACREAGE report on Friday average just 86.7 million acres, down a whopping 6.1 million from March intentions and more than double the 3 million acre cut USDA already made in its June WASDE….
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USDA’s June WASDE Corn Price Forecast too S-T-I-N-G-Y by Historical Standards

Initially, the trade reaction to USDA’s June 11 WASDE balance sheet for corn was price friendly. Traders were surprised USDA cut the planted acreage estimate by 3 million from March Prospective Plantings this soon; not even waiting to see the…
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First look at WASDE WIZARD ® 2019-20 corn/soybean price outlook after Friday “stock shock” and three possible weather scenarios

There are really only 2 possible explanations for the 138 million bu. surprise in Friday’s Sept. 1 corn stocks report. Either the 2017 crop was bigger than USDA’s final estimate last January or feed usage has been smaller than USDA’s…
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WASDE Wizard® Perspective on September WASDE Numbers

WASDE WIZARD ® Perspective on September WASDE Numbers: Why a second MFP payment to soybean producers will depend more on political calculations than actual economic impact of lost exports. For soybeans, WASDE changes make 2nd USDA grower payment unlikely. The…
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