Bare Knuckles Ag ™

Latest Posts

USDA’s latest 10-yr projections bullish for meat exports

Each February, USDA updates its 10-yr projections for agriculture in general and the year-by-year supply/demand and price outlook for all major crops. The latest came out Feb. 14 entitled “USDA Agricultural Projections to 2029”. The report is commonly referenced as…
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Market reaction understated because China trade deal is underrated.

Background: Markets had nearly grown immune to reports of “progress” on ending the trade war with China because Beijing so regularly either denied any agreements had been reached or insisted what they had agreed to was “lost in translation” (overstated)…
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Pick one: Either USDA is too bearish or some 2020 crop futures too strong.

Background: I plugged Friday’s November WASDE numbers for 2019-20 and USDA’s recent initial “baseline” balance sheets for 2020-21 corn, wheat and soybeans into my WASDE Wizard ® forecasting model under 3 weather scenarios with interesting results. The next three tables…
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Missouri Realtors Land Institute hosts “Industrial Impacts to Real Estate”

As I travel the country making presentations to farm groups on a variety of topics, a series of three questions in one form or another inevitably come up in the Q&A that follows: What’s the potential for industrial hemp as…
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Why 2019-20 Could Unfold Like a Re-run of 1993-94 Bull Market in Corn

Pre-report trade estimates for corn in USDA’s ACREAGE report on Friday average just 86.7 million acres, down a whopping 6.1 million from March intentions and more than double the 3 million acre cut USDA already made in its June WASDE….
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USDA’s June WASDE Corn Price Forecast too S-T-I-N-G-Y by Historical Standards

Initially, the trade reaction to USDA’s June 11 WASDE balance sheet for corn was price friendly. Traders were surprised USDA cut the planted acreage estimate by 3 million from March Prospective Plantings this soon; not even waiting to see the…
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Friday WASDE hints trade spat “hangover”

Friday WASDE hints trade spat “hangover” to cost soy producers .68/bu. on 2019 crop. It was mostly a grim picture for the corn, wheat and soybean outlook in USDA’s first look at the supply/demand balance sheets for 2019 crops in…
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