Bare Knuckles Ag ™

Latest Posts

3 Reasons Mar 31 Prospective Plantings will already be suspect

History shows farmers can change their plans by a lot due to changing price outlooks or weather planting delays can change plans for them. (Usually it’s the latter.) Over the last 20 years, corn acreage reported in June has increased…
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Deferred cattle futures grossly oversold in COVID19 panic

Wholesale beef prices have been soaring this week as grocery stores saw fresh meat counters stripped bare. Packer margins are obscenely profitable. The picture above is the beef case at a grocery store here in St. Louis and it’s the…
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USDA’s latest 10-yr projections bullish for meat exports

Each February, USDA updates its 10-yr projections for agriculture in general and the year-by-year supply/demand and price outlook for all major crops. The latest came out Feb. 14 entitled “USDA Agricultural Projections to 2029”. The report is commonly referenced as…
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Market reaction understated because China trade deal is underrated.

Background: Markets had nearly grown immune to reports of “progress” on ending the trade war with China because Beijing so regularly either denied any agreements had been reached or insisted what they had agreed to was “lost in translation” (overstated)…
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Pick one: Either USDA is too bearish or some 2020 crop futures too strong.

Background: I plugged Friday’s November WASDE numbers for 2019-20 and USDA’s recent initial “baseline” balance sheets for 2020-21 corn, wheat and soybeans into my WASDE Wizard ® forecasting model under 3 weather scenarios with interesting results. The next three tables…
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Missouri Realtors Land Institute hosts “Industrial Impacts to Real Estate”

As I travel the country making presentations to farm groups on a variety of topics, a series of three questions in one form or another inevitably come up in the Q&A that follows: What’s the potential for industrial hemp as…
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Why 2019-20 Could Unfold Like a Re-run of 1993-94 Bull Market in Corn

Pre-report trade estimates for corn in USDA’s ACREAGE report on Friday average just 86.7 million acres, down a whopping 6.1 million from March intentions and more than double the 3 million acre cut USDA already made in its June WASDE….
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